Tag Archives: Stats

Election predictions and statistical independence


Here’s an article on predicting the UK election: CLICK HERE

In the piece, I raise some queries about two very interesting articles from the excellent election news site May2015. The articles (here and here) suggest that David Cameron faces an extremely difficult task to remain as prime minister, based on the mathematics of how national polls will translate into parliamentary seats. I wonder whether the statistics support the level of confidence with which this conclusion is presented.